Wani sabon bincike daga Cornwall Insight ya gano cewa gonakin hasken rana suna biyan kashi 10-20% na farashin samar da ayyukan taimakon mitoci ga Kasuwar Wutar Lantarki ta Kasa, duk da cewa a halin yanzu suna samar da kusan kashi 3% na makamashi a cikin tsarin.
Ba shi da sauƙi zama kore.Ayyukan Solarsuna fuskantar haɗari da yawa don dawowa kan saka hannun jari - FCAS a cikinsu.
Ragewa, jinkirin haɗin gwiwa, abubuwan asara na gefe, rashin isassun tsarin watsa wutar lantarki, tsarin tsarin makamashi na tarayya mai gudana - jerin abubuwan la'akari da abubuwan da za su iya ɓarna daga layin ƙasa na masu haɓaka hasken rana yana ƙaruwa koyaushe.Sabbin kididdigar da manazarta makamashin Cornwall Insight suka yi a yanzu sun gano cewa gonakin hasken rana na yin kasa a gwiwa wajen bunkasar farashin samar da ayyukan taimakon mitoci (FCAS) a kasuwar Wutar Lantarki ta Kasa (NEM).
Cornwall Insight ya ba da rahoton cewa gonakin hasken rana suna biya tsakanin 10% zuwa 20% na jimlar farashin FCAS a kowane wata, lokacin da a wannan matakin suna samar da kusan 3% na makamashin da aka samar a cikin NEM.A kwatankwacin, gonakin iska sun ba da kusan kashi 9% na makamashi a cikin NEM a cikin shekarar kuɗi ta 2019-20 (FY20), kuma adadin abin da ke haifar da su na FCAS ya biya kusan kashi 10% na jimlar farashin ƙa'ida.
Ma'anar "mai sawa yana biya" yana nufin nawa kowane janareta ya karkata daga ƙimar hawan layinsu don cimma burin tura makamashi na gaba na kowane lokacin aikawa.
"Wani sabon la'akari na aiki don sabuntawa shine alhakin da babban tsari na farashin FCAS ke haifar da ribar ayyukan makamashi da ake sabuntawa na yanzu da na gaba," in ji Ben Cerini, Babban Mashawarci a Cornwall Insight Australia.
Binciken kamfanin ya gano cewa mai haifar da FCAS yana biyan farashi don masu samar da hasken rana suna kusan dala 2,368 a kowace megawatt kowace shekara, ko kuma kusan $1.55/MWh, kodayake wannan ya bambanta a cikin yankuna NEM, tare da gonakin hasken rana na Queensland suna da manyan abubuwan biyan kuɗi a cikin FY20 fiye da waɗanda haifa a wasu jihohin.
Cerini ya lura, "Tun daga 2018, ƙa'ida ta FCAS farashin ya bambanta tsakanin $10- $ 40 miliyan kwata.Q2 na 2020 ya kasance ɗan ƙaramin kwata ta kwatancen kwanan nan, akan dala miliyan 15 tare da kashi uku na ƙarshe kafin hakan sama da dala miliyan 35 kwata.”
Rabuwar damuwa tana ɗaukarsa
Aiwatar da FCAS yana ba Mai Gudanar da Kasuwar Makamashi ta Australiya (AEMO) damar sarrafa karkatattun ƙira ko kaya.Babban masu ba da gudummawa ga tsadar FCAS na Q1 a wannan shekara sune abubuwan "rabuwa" guda uku da ba zato ba tsammani: lokacin da layukan watsa labarai da yawa a kudancin NSW suka ruguje sakamakon gobarar daji, ta raba arewa da yankunan kudancin NEM a ranar 4 ga Janairu;rabuwa mafi tsada, lokacin da Kudancin Ostireliya da Victoria suka kasance a tsibirin na tsawon kwanaki 18 bayan guguwar da ta gurgunta layukan sadarwa a ranar 31 ga Janairu;da kuma rabuwar Kudancin Ostiraliya da yammacin tashar wutar lantarki ta Mortlake ta Victoria daga NEM a ranar 2 ga Maris.
Lokacin da NEM ke aiki azaman tsarin da aka haɗa FCAS za a iya samo shi daga ko'ina cikin grid, ƙyale AEMO ya kira mafi arha tayi daga masu samarwa kamar janareta, batura da lodi.A yayin abubuwan da suka faru na rabuwa, FCAS dole ne a samo asali a cikin gida, kuma a cikin yanayin rabuwa na kwanaki 18 na SA da Victoria, an sadu da ita ta hanyar karuwar samar da iskar gas.
Sakamakon haka, farashin tsarin NEM a cikin Q1 ya kasance dala miliyan 310, wanda adadin dalar Amurka miliyan 277 aka yiwa FCAS da ake buƙata don kiyaye tsaro a cikin waɗannan yanayi na ban mamaki.
Komawa ga tsarin da aka saba da shi yana kashe dala miliyan 63 a cikin Q2, wanda FCAS ta samar da dala miliyan 45, ya kasance "da farko saboda rashin faruwar manyan abubuwan raba tsarin wutar lantarki", in ji AEMO a cikin Q2 2020.Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarƙashin Ƙarshe na Kwata-kwatarahoto.
Manya-manyan hasken rana na taimakawa wajen rage farashin wutar lantarki
A lokaci guda, Q2 2020 ya ga matsakaicin matsakaicin matsakaicin farashin wutar lantarki na yanki ya kai mafi ƙarancin matakansu tun 2015;da kuma 48-68% ƙasa da yadda suke a cikin Q2 2019. AEMO ya lissafa abubuwan da suka ba da gudummawa don rage farashin farashi kamar haka: “ƙananan farashin iskar gas da kwal, sauƙaƙe ƙayyadaddun ƙarancin kwal a Dutsen Piper, haɓakar ruwan sama (da samar da ruwa), da sabon wadata mai sabuntawa”.
Matsakaicin ma'aunin wutar lantarki mai sabuntawa (iska da hasken rana) ya karu da 454 MW a cikin Q2 2020, wanda ya kai kashi 13% na mahaɗin wadatar, daga 10% a cikin Q2 2019.
Makamashin sabuntawa mafi ƙasƙanci zai ƙara kawai gudunmawarsa don rage yawan farashin makamashi;da ƙarin rarrabawa da ƙarfafa gidan yanar gizo na watsa haɗin kai, tare da ƙa'idodin da aka bita da ke tafiyar da haɗin baturi a cikin NEM, riƙe maɓallin don tabbatar da samun damar yin gasa ga FCAS kamar yadda ake bukata.
A halin da ake ciki, Cerini ya ce masu haɓakawa da masu saka hannun jari suna sa ido sosai kan duk wani ƙarin haɗari ga farashin ayyukan: "Yayin da farashin kayayyaki ya faɗi, yuwuwar sayan wutar lantarki ya ragu, kuma abubuwan asarar sun canza," in ji shi.
Cornwall Insight ya nuna aniyarsa ta samar da hasashen farashin FCAS tun daga watan Satumba na 2020, kodayake nau'ikan abubuwan da suka haifar da FCAS a cikin Q1 suna da wuyar tsammani.
Duk da haka, Cerini ya ce, "Ayyukan FCAS yanzu sun dage kan ajanda mai himma."
Lokacin aikawa: Agusta-23-2020